Casino offers can be a great source of income when matched betting. Although they don’t guarantee a profit every time, if they have value then they will return a profit on average over time.
When playing casino offers, it’s all about the value, or ‘Expected Value’ (EV) as it is commonly referred to as. Each casino offer has an Expected Value and if it is positive, it means that you will make a profit overall if you played that offer an infinite number of times. Sometimes you will win, sometimes you will lose but overall, you will be up.
So, how is the Estimated Value of casino offer calculated?
The EV of many casino offers can be calculated using simple math. For others which require multiple wagering of the bonus, an advanced casino simulator such as the one available at Profit Squad is needed to accurately determine the EV.
Let’s say that you accepted a casino offer which is ‘Wager £10 and get 10 x 20p Free Spins’.
First, we must determine how much on average we will lose qualifying for the free spins.
If we are using a slot with an RTP of 95% and wagered £10 on it, we would expect to receive back £9.50 on average, meaning that it has cost up 50p to receive the 20 free spins.
Next, we will determine how much on average we will win from playing the free spins.
Each of the 20 free spins is worth 20p and so this is essentially a bonus of £4.
Again, if we used a slot with an RTP of 95%, we would expect to win £3.80.
Therefore, the total EV of this offer is our winnings minus our qualifying losses.
EV = (£3.80 – £0.50) = £3.30
How To Increase The EV Of Casino Offers
With each casino offer, we want to extract as much value as possible. When matched betting with free bets, this is done by finding matches between back and lay odds which are very close so that qualifying losses are kept to a minimum and that we are able to extract the maximum value from the free bets.
The same can be done with casino offers except that instead of finding close matches, we choose to use casino games which have a high RTP (Return To Player). This will mean that on average, our qualifying losses will be smaller and our wins from the bonuses & free spins will be bigger.
Using the same example as above but with a slot with an RTP of 98%, we get the following results:
Qualifying loss after wagering £10 on a 98% RTP slot = £0.20
Winnings after using 20 x 20p free spins on a 98% RTP slot = £3.92
Overall EV when using a 98% RTP slot = £3.72.
Therefore, we can increase the EV of this offer from £3.30 to £3.72 simply by using a slot with a higher RTP.
This may not sound like a huge amount but it’s actually an increase of over 12.7%! Over time, that will add up to a lot more profit.
Best Casino Games To Use When Matched Betting Casino Offers
So, which casino games have the highest RTP?
Blackjack is a great choice of game for casino offers as it has a very high RTP of around 99.5%. However, wagering on Blackjack isn’t always allowed when qualifying for casino offers and if it is, you often have to wager a significant amount more. Always check the terms of the offer to see if Blackjack is allowed first.
The most common game to use for casino offers are slots. Mainly because there are so many free spin offers available. However, the RTP of slots vary massively and so if you are even given the option of which slots to use, always opt for one which has a high RTP.
Ideally, you’re looking for a slot which has an RTP of 96% or more where possible. Some of the most popular high-RTP slots which are commonly available include:
- Pixies of the Forest 2 (98.83% RTP)
- Blood Suckers (98% RTP)
- Money Train (98% RTP)
- Golden Tour (97.71% RTP)
- White Rabbit (97.39%)
3. Other Casino Games
If Blackjack isn’t available then a high RTP slot is usually the best choice. However, choosing a game to play will depend on the casino offer. If an offer is focussed on roulette, then you may need to find a roulette game to play. Like with most other games, there are various versions of roulette which have different RTP’s. The majority of roulette games have an RTP of around 97.5%.